The article shows that the Fermi paradox is even more mysterious than some thought, because we will probably not be the civilization in this universe or galaxy that is 'in front' as we are not early but average.
However, something always bothers me about the Fermi paradox. I've never seen the most obvious resolution mentioned (at least to me). I think that we are just not (yet) able to detect any civilization given the maximum technological state a civilization may reach. Many people assume that because technological progress has been exponential last century for humans, that this can be projected indefinitely into the future. Similarly like some thought about indefinite economic growth. But this is nonsense, it is much more likely we will plateau at some point. The Seti-project listens for radio signals with star strength, assuming that a proper developing civilization is able to manipulate stars as radio beacons. I find this highly unlikely that any civilization will ever reach such technology or that it is even physically possible. I think it isn't.
The only thing one can say is that apparently in this galaxy, no civilization seems far enough 'progressed' yet to have colonized the entire galaxy, as I also think that crossing galaxy boundary will be a no go for any civilization. But will humans ever undertake such a quest? It will mean building generational ships, enough DNA diversity to make a new civilization feasible (minimum 5000 people?), finding a good habitable planet from here or be doomed as traveling will take thousands of years and will be tremendously costly in terms of effort, energy, materials and personal costs. How likely is that we will ever do that for every planet in the galaxy? Technology to turn one selves inward (e.g. VR) seems a much more likely turning point at which outward exploration might not seem that interesting anymore.
However, something always bothers me about the Fermi paradox. I've never seen the most obvious resolution mentioned (at least to me). I think that we are just not (yet) able to detect any civilization given the maximum technological state a civilization may reach. Many people assume that because technological progress has been exponential last century for humans, that this can be projected indefinitely into the future. Similarly like some thought about indefinite economic growth. But this is nonsense, it is much more likely we will plateau at some point. The Seti-project listens for radio signals with star strength, assuming that a proper developing civilization is able to manipulate stars as radio beacons. I find this highly unlikely that any civilization will ever reach such technology or that it is even physically possible. I think it isn't.
The only thing one can say is that apparently in this galaxy, no civilization seems far enough 'progressed' yet to have colonized the entire galaxy, as I also think that crossing galaxy boundary will be a no go for any civilization. But will humans ever undertake such a quest? It will mean building generational ships, enough DNA diversity to make a new civilization feasible (minimum 5000 people?), finding a good habitable planet from here or be doomed as traveling will take thousands of years and will be tremendously costly in terms of effort, energy, materials and personal costs. How likely is that we will ever do that for every planet in the galaxy? Technology to turn one selves inward (e.g. VR) seems a much more likely turning point at which outward exploration might not seem that interesting anymore.