So the comparisons to other industries are misleading in one sense and deeply revealing in another.
Movies spread out their sales over an extremely long time compared to games. This means that box office numbers will be smaller. This ALSO means that they are not serving many markets that could bring them revenue off the bat.
Games that don't release on all platforms simultaneously have a similar problem, but nowhere near that of movies which refuse to let people watch them in their preferred format from the start.
> Movies spread out their sales over an extremely long time compared to games.
Is that true? It seems like most hundred-million-dollar movies make most of their money on opening weekend, and after a couple of weeks their (domestic) box office is basically finished. I'd expect GTA V to keep selling for a while. The Wikipedia page for GTA IV says it sold approximately 6 million copies in the first week, and 25 million copies total.
I suspect Disney may be atypical in that regard. People are constantly having kids for the first time, and there is then a steady stream of people buying movies for their kids that they know kids like. Most other genres probably have not enjoyed much of that.
Most of the value in old movies, going forward, is probably going to be in padding streaming libraries for Netflix/etc to license. Will Goodfellas itself worth much currently and in the future? Probably not; anybody who wants that on DVD probably already has it on DVD. A streaming library that includes movies of the caliber of Goodfellas though? That is probably worth a hefty chunk of cash.
Also, classic games do get "HD refreshes" to re-release them for new media. How many times has Super Mario 1 been updated?
Also, today's movies seem to eschew the kind of prioritizing that would create timeless classics you'll still watch in 10 years - I mean, I enjoy today's movies - I'm no snob. But the writing is utter crap. Seriously, how do you drop 9 figures on making a film and cock up the script so thoroughly?
Which is why streaming tv boxsets is the real cash cow at the moment. Lots of people missed the 100 odd hours of The Wire, Sopranos, 6ft under, 24 etc. That's what really keeps the eyeballs on box.
True, but I suspect that doesn't massively prolong most movies, only big ones that people are passionate about (Star Wars, The Godfather Trilogy, etc).
Just randomly picking... 2004. Top 10 movies from that year, and pulling future media sales predictions out of my ass:
Shrek 2 kids movie, profitable regardless.
Spider-Man 2 probably poor
The Passion of the Christ probably poor
Meet the Fockers nobody cares.
The Incredibles kids movie, profitable regardless.
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban great.
The Day After Tomorrow nobody cares.
The Bourne Supremacy possibly good.
National Treasure nobody cares.
The Polar Express nobody cares.
I mean, I am sure all of these will have future releases on new media. There is no reason not to re-release movies, it is essentially printing money), but will many of them see dramatic sales that will really change how we view the profitability of those movies? Meet the Fockers was a good movie, but nobody is going to give a shit if you re-release it in 3D, 4K resolution, "hyperdisk". Only a few have that potential I think, and it gets more bleak if you stop looking at the top 10.
After the initial burst of home media sales, I just don't see most movies getting anything more than a trickle of revenue. For every movie like Office Space, there are dozens that aren't.
I don't think that either GTA or most movies targeted to adults have the sort of longevity that Disney movies have. I therefore think that it is fair to compare GTA to blockbuster movies (or at least I think that Disney isn't a reason why it isn't).
Well, check out any of the Nintendo/Playstation/Xbox online stores. They all contain games from the 90s that you can buy for $5-10 a pop.
Furthermore, I would think (I don't have any sources so this is just a guess) that with DVD sales plummeting, and the comparative ease of pirating movies as opposed to console games, that DVD sales would account for very little in the long run. However, I still see old video games at Black Friday events that sell out like crazy.
That game is Hard. I couldn't finish it when i was 17 years old and have been playing games for 10 years. It is definitely different from today's licensed games.
Big movies also have huge marketing costs to recoup. The real money comes on the DVD sales. There's an adage in the industry that the theatrical release is the marketing campaign for the DVD.
And if it is true, why is it the case? I can't think of any particular reason why sales of one medium would gather closer to the release date than another medium. =
The movie industry is different because their products only last a couple of hours and repeat viewing is minimal. Cinemas need exclusivity in order to justify the premium. Then you get a quick home video version. Then a rental. Perhaps a collectors' edition to cash-in on enthusiasts and fans. After that, pay TV. Free-to-air channel premières. Finally, when no one is willing to pay any further, there's all-you-can-eat streaming.
Yep. I absolutely agree. Games have only started to explore 'alternate' monetization schemes. DLC was on my mind as I was writing my comment. In one sense DLC makes games more like serialized television rather than the (supposedly) complete and self contained experience of a movie. Alternately DLC is an opportunity to deepen the experience of players, something that movies and television cant really do.
Movies spread out their sales over an extremely long time compared to games. This means that box office numbers will be smaller. This ALSO means that they are not serving many markets that could bring them revenue off the bat.
Games that don't release on all platforms simultaneously have a similar problem, but nowhere near that of movies which refuse to let people watch them in their preferred format from the start.