Hmmm...so traders had a 1 in 4 shot of picking the correct company and they happ... | Hacker News

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ryanwaggoner on April 2, 2009 | parent | context | favorite | on: Wrong Tomorrow - holding pundits accountable for p...

Hmmm...so traders had a 1 in 4 shot of picking the correct company and they happened to do so? I remain unconvinced. I also remain unconvinced that this data is useful. It's not like we should let trader behavior influence safety investigations, right?

smanek on April 2, 2009 [–]

Go read "The Wisdom of Crowds" - it is chock full of examples like this.

No one is saying we should use markets for safety investigations - we are saying that we should use it predicatively.

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