I suspect a number of strategies will be used. First, they'll say it's being used for drug transactions. (Which is of course already the case.) Then they'll say it's being used for terrorist funding.
Once it's thoroughly demonized, they'll start going after people with bitcoin balances, and seize them through existing asset forfeiture laws. (Which allow the government to seize whatever they want; and if you want it back, the burden of proof is on you.)
They'll probably also focus on methods for converting Bitcoin back into mainstream currencies. In the end, those massive NSA databases that record everything that everyone is doing will probably be used to crack down on larger numbers of individuals. While this wouldn't be a "technical" shut-down, it would have a chilling effect as these "examples" will be publicized as a warning to other Bitcoin users.
> Once it's thoroughly demonized, they'll start going after people with bitcoin balances
How do you determine that someone has bitcoin balance?
> They'll probably also focus on methods for converting Bitcoin back into mainstream currencies.
This sounds more viable strategy: attack the exchanges. After all, the value of bitcoins comes from the fact that it is liquid - easily convertible to existing currencies and back.
However even shutting the exchanges down would require global cooperation from goverments and probably heavy internet censorship as well. That is because many exchanges don't even need any ties to the existing banking infrastructure, and can operate from any country.
Once it's thoroughly demonized, they'll start going after people with bitcoin balances, and seize them through existing asset forfeiture laws. (Which allow the government to seize whatever they want; and if you want it back, the burden of proof is on you.)
They'll probably also focus on methods for converting Bitcoin back into mainstream currencies. In the end, those massive NSA databases that record everything that everyone is doing will probably be used to crack down on larger numbers of individuals. While this wouldn't be a "technical" shut-down, it would have a chilling effect as these "examples" will be publicized as a warning to other Bitcoin users.