I'm not sure the little details are enough of a moat. Consider TikTok - people use cheap "special effects" to get the message across, e.g. if a man is playing a woman he might drape a towel over his head - it's silly and low quality but it gets the idea across to the viewer. Think too about programs like Archer or South Park that have (stylistically) low quality animation but still huge fan bases.
What I think this will unlock, maybe with a bit of improvement, is low quality video generation for a vast number of people. Do you have a short film idea? Know people with some? Likely millions of people will be able to use this to put together good enough short films - that yes, have terrible details, but are still good enough to watch. Some of those millions of newly enabled videos will have such strong ideas or writing behind them that it will make up for, or capitalize on, the weak video generation.
As the tools become easier, cheaper, faster, better etc more and more hobbyists will pick them up and try to use them. The user base will encourage the product to grow, and it will gradually consume film (assuming it can reach the point of being as or nearly as good as modern special effects).
I think of it like - when Steven Spielberg was young he used an 8mm camera, not as good as professional film equipment in the day, but good enough to create with. If I were a high school student interested in film I would absolutely be using stuff like this to create.
> What I think this will unlock, maybe with a bit of improvement, is low quality video generation for a vast number of people. Do you have a short film idea? Know people with some? Likely millions of people will be able to use this to put together good enough short films - that yes, have terrible details, but are still good enough to watch.
Sure, this is already happening on Reels, Tik Tok, etc. People are ok with low quality content on those platforms. Lazy AI will undoubtedly be more utilized here. But I don’t think it’s threatening Hollywood (well, aside from slowly destroying people’s attention spans for long form content, but that’s a different debate). People will still want high quality entertainment, even if they can also be satisfied with low fidelity stuff too.
I think this has always been true — think the difference between made for TV CGI and big-budget Hollywood movie CGI. Expectations are different in different mediums.
This current product is not good enough for Hollywood. As long as people have some desire for Hollywood level quality, this will not take those jobs.
The big caveat here is “yet” — when does this get good enough? And this is where my skepticism comes in, because the last mile is the hardest, and getting things mostly right isn’t really good enough for high quality content. (Remember how much the internet lost it over a Starbucks cup in Game of Thrones?)
The other caveat is maybe that our minds melt into stupidity to the point that we only watch things in low fidelity 10 seconds clips that AI can capably run amock with. In which case I don’t really think AI actually takes over Hollywood so much as Hollywood — effectively high fidelity long form content — just ceases to exist altogether. That is the sad timeline.
What I think this will unlock, maybe with a bit of improvement, is low quality video generation for a vast number of people. Do you have a short film idea? Know people with some? Likely millions of people will be able to use this to put together good enough short films - that yes, have terrible details, but are still good enough to watch. Some of those millions of newly enabled videos will have such strong ideas or writing behind them that it will make up for, or capitalize on, the weak video generation.
As the tools become easier, cheaper, faster, better etc more and more hobbyists will pick them up and try to use them. The user base will encourage the product to grow, and it will gradually consume film (assuming it can reach the point of being as or nearly as good as modern special effects).
I think of it like - when Steven Spielberg was young he used an 8mm camera, not as good as professional film equipment in the day, but good enough to create with. If I were a high school student interested in film I would absolutely be using stuff like this to create.