> I'm thinking about all forms of "knowledge work" being impacted
It's the same story of "all forms" of white collar work.
The big bucks you make in Sales, IB, PE, Medicine, Accounting, Actuary, etc all come from reasoning, and we are still very far away from that level of "general intelligence".
The current market does suck for early career candidates, but that's not yet because of AI taking jobs - it's because of standard outsourcing and roll mergers due to margin pressures.
Fully autonomous reasoning that can truly pass the Turing test, but we aren't there yet.
It feels like a lot of people have fallen for the "Chinese Room trap" that John Searle brought up decades ago in Cognitive Science
Truly autonomous semantic modeling and generation is still very much far away - it basically took us 70 years to barely solve Syntactic modeling, and Pragmatics and Semiotics which are even deeper than Semantics are still at their infancy.
I do think semantic modeling will be cracked within the next decade, but it would still take a generation to solve the quantum leap in pragmatics and semiotics. If a model can reason both pragmatic and semiotic concepts at the same level comparable as indistinguishable as a domain expert, then AGI is de facto solved.
> Fully autonomous reasoning that can truly pass the Turing test, but we aren't there yet.
The thing is, it's not that binary. AI progress will be incremental and gradual and we're already seeing some job impact. So while not guaranteed (this is a complex issue, with lots of variables) it's not at all unreasonable to think that significant job displacement due to AI could happen in the near future (for the sake of argument, I'll say "near future" here means "next 20 years").
It's the same story of "all forms" of white collar work.
The big bucks you make in Sales, IB, PE, Medicine, Accounting, Actuary, etc all come from reasoning, and we are still very far away from that level of "general intelligence".
The current market does suck for early career candidates, but that's not yet because of AI taking jobs - it's because of standard outsourcing and roll mergers due to margin pressures.
Fully autonomous reasoning that can truly pass the Turing test, but we aren't there yet.
It feels like a lot of people have fallen for the "Chinese Room trap" that John Searle brought up decades ago in Cognitive Science
Truly autonomous semantic modeling and generation is still very much far away - it basically took us 70 years to barely solve Syntactic modeling, and Pragmatics and Semiotics which are even deeper than Semantics are still at their infancy.
I do think semantic modeling will be cracked within the next decade, but it would still take a generation to solve the quantum leap in pragmatics and semiotics. If a model can reason both pragmatic and semiotic concepts at the same level comparable as indistinguishable as a domain expert, then AGI is de facto solved.