Disagree. I still put a few percentage points of probability on it happening much faster, maybe by 2030 or 2035. The whole internet and a good chunk of the global economy is predicated on secure encryption. A small chance of that being disrupted is worth substantial investment. Deploying PQC protocols for testing is cheap.

Not to mention the fact that we still don’t know if the current candidate PQC protocols are actually secure. Security is mostly a game of back-and-forth over years, so it could take a while.