A single tactical nuclear weapon is not that destructive or decisive.
A major idea in cold war thinking about the European theater is that forces might be concentrated or dispersed, one aspect of which is that dispersed forces are not so vulnerable to tactical nuclear weapons.
Things may have changed but at the start of the war I was always reading about units with names like "such-and-such brigade (detached)" where "detached" means that the units are not attached to a division as most units are. Such a force is used to operating in a dispersed manner and it is not going to form massive concentrations of forces that are easy to nuke.
> A single tactical nuclear weapon is not that destructive or decisive
On a battlefield, you are correct. In terms of policy, politics, and precedent, it would be significant. For whom or which side depends on the response to such an event.
Russian generals aren't stupid, they know the moment they use tactical nukes on Ukraine's territory, Ukrainians will get the nukes from UK and US and will be using that on Russian territories. The argument is very simple, the West will be upholding the Budapest memorandum. Even China knows the deal and already told Putin to calm down.
Ukraine will not get nukes from the US/UK so they can launch them. They aren't allowed to use the current HIMARs systems against targets in Russia. If Ukraine did, they probably wouldn't keep getting them. It's part of how we keep escalation as minimal as possible.
The West would most likely enter the war using conventional weapons. Launching a nuke back is the escalation path to thermonuclear weapons wiping out humanity. Or in other words, the west does not have to respond to nukes with nukes...
It's not unlikely, it is the reality. There is no red nuclear button that Putin can press, no matter what he wants everyone to believe. The command chain is pretty long, even in Russia.
Can you share the information that makes you state that "it is the reality" that the Russian military can launch nuclear weapons without political approval?
You may want to consider how would that work in an authoritarian country where the politicians have a deep mistrust of the military.
>At the same time, an order from the top to launch first will certainly require multiple individuals to approve and obey
True in all nuclear powers. The commenter seemed to imply mutiny would be likely. That would be one hell of a game of Russian roulette to pin one's hope of salvation on his opponent's dysfunction. certainly not one I'd like to play.
This comment has been making the rounds since Feb 2022 and it’s nothing but a coping mechanism that makes you feel like one madman can’t end the world. Putin has eliminated all but the yes men. If he wants to launch, they will launch.
A major idea in cold war thinking about the European theater is that forces might be concentrated or dispersed, one aspect of which is that dispersed forces are not so vulnerable to tactical nuclear weapons.
Things may have changed but at the start of the war I was always reading about units with names like "such-and-such brigade (detached)" where "detached" means that the units are not attached to a division as most units are. Such a force is used to operating in a dispersed manner and it is not going to form massive concentrations of forces that are easy to nuke.