The prediction was that we are guaranteed to go into a recession. Are you suggesting that we might have a recession in which the stock market doesn't decline? Bear in mind that this is a situation in which we can be sure the Fed will not prop it up, since they're the cause of it going down in the first place.
If we're making predictions about recessions based on history, then it seems pretty clear that the result of one will be a market decline.
I think the issue is that we’re already in a recession, everyone has been talking about this for months, and the stock market has taken a giant turn downward already last year. It could stay at its current level for a year or two before rising again, but the stock market has already been expecting a recession and that’s likely why it’s this low already.
It doesn’t have to drop more in a recession because it already has! People losing their jobs and spending less is already predicted by Wall St.
Apologies for not being clear. I was referring to this quote which you quoted.
>But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off.
There will not be a soft landing.
It seemed like you were responding to this statement that was about employment rather than the stock market, before making your comment about shorting the equities market.
If we're making predictions about recessions based on history, then it seems pretty clear that the result of one will be a market decline.