> Then there was the Shuttle, which was supposed to have a less than 1% chance of losing a crew and managed to kill 14 astronauts in 130-something flights (and had a couple more very close calls).

That seems like a misleading way to frame it. It was 14 astronauts out of 833 who flew, or 2 crews out of 130, so 1.5%. Not far off the estimate. And with that high a percentage, a number close calls are also expected.