I often read comments where people say something along the lines of, “X is considered impossible with current technology but I bet the intelligence agencies have had it for years”.
It seems reasonable that incremental developments might have been made sooner by government than academic researchers or industry. Indeed, there are examples. But leaps like quantum computing?
I’m not ascribing this to you but I’ve noticed that there’s often a crossover between people who, on the one hand, believe government is pretty much incapable while, on the other hand, having some near magic ability to make huge technical leaps.
Wartime is different, as then it’s pretty much all hands on deck.
DoD spending in recent decades has reflected a sense that there's perpetually an r > 0 chance that we'll be in the middle of World War III in twenty years, and that we're willing to spend what it takes to ensure technological advantages for when that happens. Throughout world history, military technology has been a determining factor in when many civilizations stopped existing. The mission of the DoD is to secure the U.S. in perpetuity, so this is their core competency.
Private industries, which can only approach moonshots tepidly out of fiduciary responsibility, are already making good progress on this. My hunch is merely based on the liklihood that the DoD - which spends unfathomable amounts on R&D and does not answer to shareholders - has been going at this longer and much stronger than any private organization.
The aggregate amount spent does not mean the government pays individuals more. I'm pretty sure the NSA can't compete with private industry for salaries. So that would cast some doubt on whether they can utilize the most talented.
It seems reasonable that incremental developments might have been made sooner by government than academic researchers or industry. Indeed, there are examples. But leaps like quantum computing?
I’m not ascribing this to you but I’ve noticed that there’s often a crossover between people who, on the one hand, believe government is pretty much incapable while, on the other hand, having some near magic ability to make huge technical leaps.
Wartime is different, as then it’s pretty much all hands on deck.