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> One of the biggest problems China has in this trade war: they're entirely replaceable. They offer nothing strictly unique that can't be replaced by another country, even though there may be a serious cost involved.

I cannot see evidences that China is particularly more so than any other country.




Correct. Even if their large industrial integration of all sorts of parts in close proximity was easily replaceable(which is itself very difficult), for them to be easily replaceable, buyers would have to be more price indifferent, which doesn't seem to be happening.


Saudi Oil is a commodity, but many country’s don’t have oil. Every country has low skilled workers.


Low skilled workers doesn’t accurately describe what China brings to the table currently. They effectively are the only place in the world you can source certain parts of the electronic supply chain at the volume currently necessary. They’ve been up the technical ladder for decades at the same time as other places have shed that capability. It would take a long time for Vietnam to come online. I’d guess Korea or Japan would be closest and that would have dramatic price impact.


What is a dramatic price impact in the context of Apple products. 5%? 10%? Would that really stop you? They keep hiking the prices anyway.


for iPhone, maybe it's just 10%, what about the other staff you need to buy daily? Do you count how many staff you using are Made In China right now?


There is no absolute standard of low-tech and high-tech.

The question is how replaceable. That is indirect relevant to iPhone or any small sample of particular items.

The point is, overall, how replaceable is China? How is China ranked on the replaceable country list?

I cannot see any evidences that China will be ranked below top3 (US China EU) in the world's least replaceable country when cutting from global trade.


Nationwide ~1/5th of US imports come directly from China, that’s bumped a little when countries manufacture with Chinease parts but stays well under 1/4th of US imports and ~1/37th the US GDP.

Personally, I get very little directly or indirectly from China based on my shopping habits it’s mostly electronic gifts.


China does a lot of different thinks all the way up to building jet engines. However, the percentage of people employed at mod to high skill manufacturing is not enough to keep things going in the event of a trade war.


Nah, if you see what technologies are used for extracting oil and the geopolitical structure, you'll see how western careful maintains the status such that Saudi is replaceable if needed. Given the oil's strategic value, sure, it's not as easily replaceable like cloth producers. But itself, as compared to any other country with similar strategic value, is certainly as replaceable as any other such country.




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