I did a ton of analysis, and basically at the end of the day it came out to "will they hit their targets in Q3/Q4 2016 and Q1/Q2 2017?"
There's so much unknown that Tesla continuing to de-risk the business step by step gets them in line with the current valuations, and forward-looking it should go up.
So I figured that at $180 (a very low price for Tesla historically) that if they did what they were predicting (which no one thought they could) that they would crush the current stock price. They have since hit (or come very close to) all of their targets.
Now the entire question short-term is around how the M3 performs. Long-term Tesla is playing a game no one else even sees, so we'd be OK with a couple stumbles.
>I did a ton of analysis, and basically at the end of the day it came out to "will they hit their targets in Q3/Q4 2016 and Q1/Q2 2017?"
The analysis upon which you went "all-in" on Tesla rests on a non-GAAP "delivery" figure (rather than a sales number), covering a few quarters, 1 year before the first model 3 is even built? I'd be interested in seeing that work. What did you think when they missed 2016 delivery estimates by 5%?
I'm aware it's not GAAP. They're showing they can deliver with models x and s. They didn't even have to get to model 3 for me to be up 60% (in four months).
I was a little concerned that they missed 2016, but the stock actually went up that day; most thought they would miss by more.
There's so much unknown that Tesla continuing to de-risk the business step by step gets them in line with the current valuations, and forward-looking it should go up.
So I figured that at $180 (a very low price for Tesla historically) that if they did what they were predicting (which no one thought they could) that they would crush the current stock price. They have since hit (or come very close to) all of their targets.
Now the entire question short-term is around how the M3 performs. Long-term Tesla is playing a game no one else even sees, so we'd be OK with a couple stumbles.