However, in terms of how the economy "felt", it was 2007 when that started biting, with Bear Stearns' travails becoming too prominent to easily ignore.
But, yeah, the mortgage market was already shows serious stress in 2016, but presumably nugget wasn't watching it, he says he was watching the malinvestment from the dot.com crash get resolved.
The economy, in hindsight, was very unstable in 2006. 2008 was the greatest economic collapse since 1929. There was also a problem in 2000.