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> The idea that "25% of the companies are on a trajectory that could lead to a multi-billion dollar company" feels wildly optimistic to me

The key word in that sentence is "could", not "will". I'm pretty sure after all these years YC have enough experience and data to identify the "could"'s. But they're still just "could"'s. Doesn't seem "wildly" optimistic to me, just optimistic, based on previous track records.




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