Soros has been betting against the Euro since March, shorting it for US dollars.
Again, the central bankers are fighting a losing battle.
Sooner or later there will be a similar attack on sterling and eventually the greenback.
The transferance of private debt to sovereign states has created a level of currency volatility which is the closest thing to paradise for aggressive currancy trading.
How exactly would a speculator "attack" the greenback? The exchange rate may decline relative to other currencies (or precious metals). But the money supply is huge relative to every other currency and our central bank is not trying to actively defend any particular exchange rate. There's not going to be sharp, sudden break like what happened to the pound.
Attacks like this work when there is a floor or fixed exchange rate that is artificially high, this creates the opportunity to sell high then, if you can break the floor, buy low to fulfill your obligations to deliver the currency. If there is enough downward pressure the central bank will exhaust it's foreign reserves supporting their currency and have to give up on the floor.
The currencies you mentioned all have floating exchange rates, the central banks aren't fighting any sort of battle to support them. The exchange rate isn't really a policy goal of "modern" central banks anymore, they adjust interest rates with a target level of inflation and economic growth, not a target exchange rate. Achieving inflation & growth goals actually precludes the use of monetary policy to maintain a specific exchange rate. Look up the IS/LM model, while not perfect it gives you a good framework to think about monetary policy and macro economics.
Sacca is a mega impressive guy, when presenting on Google based material. I've seen him present his own lowercase capital stuff since he left and it lacked the wit and insight which he is famed for; infact one presentation was damnright lame, bring a horse to water nonsense. He needs to employ an script writer like his Jesus, Obama, if the Sacca-brand is to continue.
Agree that you need a little overconfidence sometimes.
But perhaps the fact that there are more support systems around (move back in with parents, social benefit), means that we as a generation never grow comfortable with risk in the first place, and thus can never be truly confident with it.
It is absurd to declare that one of the most prosperous countries in the world is going to be suddenly rendered into a country of subsistence farmers (like China, Brazil, or India) because of a real estate bubble.
Hear, hear! I get flyers in my door all the time talking about "fast broadband" where fast == 1-3Mb. I'm moving soon and will be switching to NTL (cable) and getting 10Mb/1Mb for less money. Death to Eircom and their €26/mo line rental charge!
:)
Thanks (all) for responding.
I guess I never realised how much of amazons purchases must be spur-of-the-moment. (NOTE: I order stuff from amazon - but usually in groups as I'm shipping it to australia - so all of my stuff is planned - i'm going there to buy something)
But - if anyone has the metrics to prove a figure like that - it would be amazon.
Major problem with the business plan competitions I've been to is the IP. One Conversation went:
presenter: its a great idea.
judge: so what is it.
presenter: i can't really say, just trust me.
On the flip side, when a friend of mine won a competition he then couldn't patent it, as he had declared it in a room full of people.
As a result, most of the more open competitions tend to focus on quirky ideas, that could not be patented anyhow. I often find they are little more than pr exercises to lift the profile of the entrepreneurs society and/or business school, not bad in itself, i guess, but I always get more of an institutional feel about them.
