I don't understand. ChatGPT cost an estimated 10s of millions ot train. ChatGPT 4.0 has much better performance than the next best model. Isn't that a moat?
Think of it as a time series. It cost 10s of millions to train but in 6 months gpt4 open source equivalents will cost 100$ to train. The best model is one that you can build on top of in a way that’s it’s not a black box (SD).
Not sure I agree. A "short fat" could theoretically be replaced by a group of "short skinny", whereas a "tall skinny" could only be replaced by another "tall skinny".
As value is largely determined by scarcity (supply and demand), this would cause "short fat" to be of lower value.
It depends on how depth of knowledge is measured. One is considered an expert in a niche because they know it inside and out. But in theory, multiple people with a disjoint subset of knowledge of the niche could also be a reasonable replacement?
+1, fully agreed. There are definitely people making stupid bets and losing (like they should, IMO), but the notion that markets are this black box beyond human comprehension is laughable. That's especially true when you filter out the noise and find companies with solid fundamentals.