We've actually nicely accelerated user growth this year. Going the OS route was always the plan, especially given the target audience of hacktavists, human rights organizations, journalists. Open source is tablestakes to be taken seriously. It's also just one of the steps towards more transparency.
I tried installing it and only had a single contact show up. And it turns out that contact had long since uninstalled the app (said it was very unreliable), but the server was still showing her as registered.
From the app store numbers, it looks like Wire is still not even to a million monthly active users. For a funded app with a large full time staff and generous marketing budget, that's a pretty terrible sign several years after launching. I know that the founders are rich, but why would they continue funding an app that isn't showing adoption?
I didn't see that option, but either way the fact remains that even after several years, nobody is using the app. As a business with a large full time staff that needs considerable ongoing capital to continue, the numbers do not bode well for its future.
Maybe being open source will change that, but I can't see it being a significant factor for the hundreds of millions of users they need to even begin to catch up. I think they were betting on end to end encryption to save them, but their biggest competitor launched better end to end encryption by default before they could.
Is the audio quality good enough to make hundreds of millions of people switch from WhatsApp? They've been trying for a few years, and it hasn't happened. I think open sourcing the apps is probably a last gasp, and we're likely to see Wire shutting down soon. I've also heard they might be looking for a buyer.
That would be a shame. Skype sold (twice!) for billions of dollars, and the Wire investors should have access to internal growth metrics to justify a long-term investment. Like every messaging app that relies on network effects, some growth is inevitable. I've been steadily adding new contacts, each installing Wire for the first time.
I don't know what kind of internal metrics would be telling a different story than the external metrics visible to us. The app store data alone is pretty damning, any growth they've had over the past few years is very slow linear growth. People don't seem to like the app enough to switch.
You're right, they sold Skype twice, so they're not stupid. They're unlikely to keep throwing money away when the writing on the wall is this clear, and word on the street is that they're looking for an exit.
